The Home Builders Federation (HBF) has warned that a “perfect storm” of government policies and higher mortgage rates could see the number of new properties completed each year in England reach its lowest level since the Second World War.

According to the FT, the HBF estimates that changes to England’s planning framework and the impact of government environmental rules could result in the annual supply falling from 233,000 new properties in 2021-22 to just 111,000 later this decade, which would represent the lowest level in more than 80 years.

The HBF’s executive chair, Stewart Baseley, told the FT that thousands of jobs could be under threat and blamed the government’s “capitulation” to the “not in my back yard lobby”, as well as what the HBF sees as mishandling of environmental policies.

Meanwhile, interest rates have increased the cost of mortgages, and lenders have further increased the price of their products following the disastrous mini budget last Septmber. Although the cost of some fixed-term mortgages has fallen since then, they are still more expensive than before the Bank of England began raising interest rates to curb inflation.

Housing secretary Michael Gove last year back-pedalled on the government’s target to build 300,000 homes each year in England to head off a Tory rebellion. In December, Gove wrote to MPs saying the 300,000 goal was “advisory” rather than a firm target, despite having been in the Conservative Party’s 2019 general election manifesto.

The government also launched a review of the national planning policy framework for England, and Gove announced councils would no longer have to plan for a “buffer” of 20% more new homes than they needed, and they could reduce the amount of land required for property building.

Research for the HBF by planning consultancy Lichfields predicts the changes to the framework could reduce supply by 77,000 properties a year in the short term. The research also found that government environmental rules against river pollution could cut supply by another 41,000 homes a year.

Furthermore, Natural England, a governmental agency, has issued guidance on “nutrient neutrality” which compels numerous councils to curtail housing development in order to minimise the pollution generated by residential constructions. There are also concerns that restrictions set by Natural England on constructing new houses in “recreational impact zones” near national parks could further impede construction efforts.

The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities told the FT it “did not accept” the analysis by the HBF, and that it was committed to delivering 300,000 new homes each year. “The proposed changes to the planning system are designed to support areas to get more local plans in place and therefore deliver more housing,” a spokesperson said.

Meanwhile, Tom Fyans, interim CEO of countryside charity CPRE, has accused the HBF of “blatant fear mongering” and said he “strongly disagreed” with the claims.

He commented: “Local authorities will still be expected to provide more land for housebuilding. But it’s welcome that in future they’ll be put under less pressure to allow large-scale building on our precious countryside than is currently the case.”

Fyans said that not enough homes are built “mainly because large house builders are not motivated to tackle the housing crisis” and that “their main motivation, unsurprisingly, is to maximise their profits”.

He added: “This can be seen from their constant lobbying for more greenfield and Green Belt sites, despite enough brownfield land being available for 1.2 million homes, as well as the sluggish way big developers build new homes once they’ve got planning permission. They deliberately drip feed properties onto the market to exploit the dynamics of supply and demand.”