The debate surrounding the direction of house prices remains divided, with some analysts forecasting double-digit percentage falls in the short- to medium-term, while others refuse to accept that property prices will drop substantially, owed in part to the supply-demand imbalance across the UK.
Property commentator Charlie Lamdin says house prices will fall a record-breaking 35% peak to trough, over however long that takes, likely two-three years.
The claim from Lamdin, founder of Best Agent and presenter of the Moving Home with Charlie YouTube and TikTok channels, will concern many homeowners who face seeing the value of their property plunge. It will also frustrate many estate agents seeking to talk up the market.
Zoopla said this week that there has been a jump in the proportion of sellers having to accept discounts of 5% or more off the asking price to achieve a sale – the highest level since 2018.
The impact of mortgage rates and cost of living pressures means that buyers who are in the market are driving a harder bargain in comparison to recent years. Some 42% of sellers are accepting discounts over 5% on the asking price to secure a sale – while 15% are accepting discounts of over 10% off the initial asking price, according to data provided by the property portal.
Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, said the resilience of the housing market and homebuyers is set to be tested once again as mortgage rates increase, but he expects to see far more ‘modest’ price falls.
“We still expect house prices to be 5% lower over 2023,” he said.
So who is right when it comes to pricing?
Donnell appeared live on Lamdin’s online channel last night to debate their differences on how far national house prices will fall.
Property commentator, don’t make me laugh
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Always makes me laugh at the hypocrisy of agents that love these guys when they are positively speaking of the market and then you deride them when they aren’t
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No-one can predict this. If economists (or property commentators) could predict the future, we would never have recessions or economic disasters like the credit crunch of 2008. If some people are so confident in their predictions of a 35% drop, I sincerely hope they will be selling up and sitting on the capital for the foreseeable future!
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Wow! This is a virtually identical headline to a newspaper headline at the end of 1989. Who was right then?!
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Erm, certainly not the headlines! In short, prices did dip 11% in 1990, but that was on the back of an 8% price increase in 1989 and a 29% increase in 1988!
So a house that was £100k in the beginning of 1988 would have been about £140k at the end of 1989.
There’s a lot of talk about how things feel similar to the banking crisis in 2007, which is odd when you consider just how different the circumstances are today. What happened then? Prices dropped by 15% in 2008.
And here’s the thing, house prices had increased hugely between 2002 and 2007; a £100k house at the beginning of 2002 would cost you £199k in 2007.
Have we seen price increase anywhere near these levels in the past 5 years?
Sadly “House prices haven’t dropped by more that 15% a year in the past 60 years, which was at the peak of a world economic crisis. And even then, they started going up again in the following year” isn’t headline grabbing.
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