What a year that turned out to be, one well and truly trampled and kicked around by the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse that’s for sure. And where was Nostradamus when we needed him most eh? We surely could have done with the heads up given what unfolded in the form of a global pandemic, prophecies of economic suffocation in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Satan’s man on earth Trump and his ongoing mission to divide America, bushfires, floods, locusts, Murder Hornets and the like.
It’s been tragic for many and I won’t make light of that. A horrendous period of loss, anxiety, anguish and economic despair that has left no-one unchallenged. But this is a property column rather than a Guardian lament and so I’ll focus on the subject at hand, if I may…
So as April dawned last year and we were knee deep in a protracted, hard lockdown which included all aspects of the property market, I was probably not alone in wondering how we’d all survive. It felt as if all of those zombie apocalypse movies we’d watched were an education as to how to actually prepare for our future. So much so that the media, in a typical attempt at frightening us all further, revealed that the must-have property accessory for the well-heeled was an underground bunker – complete with cinema room, pool and shooting range. The mainstream media revelled in doom and exaggeration, misdirection and gotcha-scoring and delighted in contributing to sweeping panic. Project fear was not just for Brexit, it seems.
Accordingly, Q2 was less spring and more a thud as agency sales hit the floor together with everyone’s optimism. But eventually, one thing in the melee that HM Gov did get right was the realisation that turning the lights out for the housing sector altogether would kill the weakened economy even faster and so, not only did they allow the market to re-open in May and have kept it open ever since, but they boosted its return with a stamp duty tax dodge that even Starbucks would be proud of and which has had an effect similar to dumping OPEC’s entire petroleum inventory onto a lava field. The resulting increase in transactions happened fast albeit not quite as fast as the conveyancing industry’s heads swivelling from ‘There’s not enough business to go round, poor us’ to ‘stop bothering us, we can’t cope with all these cases’. Still, it’s given them an excuse to take six months to get a case through rather than the previously supersonic three to four months and which now seems just a distant, rose-tinted, romantic memory.
Rishi Sunak, our next Prime Minister, has been the saviour of our profession’s fortunes and hence many of us, I’m sure, now display a picture of the great man on our desks as a fitting nod to his greatness. Mine takes pride of place between a signed photo of Margaret Thatcher and my puppy slicer.
But what, we wonder, does 2021 hold? Well, history will record it as the ‘post-Covid year’ as the various safe (ish) and ultra-profitable vaccines coarse through our collective veins eradicating the lurgy. And it will also be a year unrestrained from the rusty shackles of the EU and where, as will become evident, not only will financial Armageddon not prevail as a consequence of leaving the clutches of Brussels – but instead we will prosper.
Watch as the queues at Primark, Wetherspoons and at McDonalds snake further around the council estates of Britain whilst pent-up demand for spending and going-out takes hold with a vengeance as we emerge from our Netflix comas. In all seriousness, the power of this future spending is best characterised by recent ONS data which shows that UK households saved 29% of their income during lockdown compared to a typical 7% usually. Spending in mid-2020 was over £80 billion down comparatively and that’s an awful lot of cash to trickle down still.
Yes, this year will be an annus-lovelius – especially for us property types whom will continue to carry Rishi’s flaming torch, igniting related prosperity wherever we go. Heroes, that’s what we are. If Covid is a war, we’re the ****** SAS.
Now obviously, this cheery tale of optimism would not be complete without some associated forecasts for the coming year on my part. Not just a boring house price punt as you’ll disappointingly see elsewhere but some proper predictions. And so I will oblige with particular confidence given that my 2020 forecasts as made in late December 2019 were all pretty much spot on despite the subsequent twelve months being especially unforeseen – except of course to those of us that are truly insightful.
Anyway, in 2021:
- Now that Countrywide will merge with Connells, they will shed branches and lots of jobs but will later prosper. The ultimate winners will be Skipton and the Connells management team. The losers will be premises landlords, staff and latecomer shareholders who, although they’ll make on the deal at closer to £4 a share, will miss out on the big bucks that will come later from a sorted, well-run, larger agency business with oodles of economies of scale and, hopefully, a more grown-up approach to its brands
- Vic Darvey will leave PurpleBricks as shareholders recognise that his promise of ‘10% market share’ is about as likely to transpire as a call back from one of their mythical sales progressors
- Nic Budden to quit Foxtons just before another bad set of financial results – ‘new blood and a new direction is needed’ say shareholders. But the replacement will turn out to be a disappointment and nothing will change except their share price which will continue to shed weight
- Rightmove begins to lose agents at pace as the more astute portals successfully battle for agents’ hearts and minds
- 10% of all high street agency branches to close. This, the tip of the iceberg compared to the actual consolidation that will take place over the next three years
- Changes are made to Stamp Duty. Again
- YOPA and Strike – at least one closes, probably both. HMRC briefly goes offline coping with the applications from shareholders for the enormous £100m losses to be written-off against tax 😉
- House prices – a year of two halves with bigger monthly growth in the first half than the second – but prices will nonetheless rise overall by 4% by the end of December year on year. I retire on my winnings from all the bets I made on this outcome together with my 2020 winnings too
- NAEA PropertyMark and their numerous CEOs still underwhelm yet also continue to prosper financially, unchallenged by their complacent members and whom, it turns out, simply want a so-called regulator’s badge to show to consumers. Any badge will do and so it might as well be this one
- easyProperty is sold/given away once again, this time to a guy that owns a corner shop in Slough in exchange for a can of Pepsi and a Dairy Milk. In the inevitable press release, new owner Rajinda explains his plans for ‘a game-changer’ and attacks high street estate agents, their shiny suits and their broken business model. Stelios Hanji-Ioannou adds that he’s ‘excited’– at least as excited as the last time the business was sold a few months back
Ok, that’s my top ten. Let’s see how I do this time round. Have a fantastic and a lucrative year with perhaps less drama than the last one and please, please – #benicetoaconveyancer if you do actually manage to speak to one.
- By the way, that Nostradamus geezer predicted the following for 2021:
- An asteroid attack
- The undead roaming the earth
- Solar storms
- Rising sea levels
- California earthquakes
A cheery fellow, wasn’t he? I reckon if he was still alive today his morose demeanour would actually fit in rather well within the comments section below.
All the best.
“Now that Countrywide will merge with Connells, ”
“Vic Darvey will leave Purplebricks”
“Nic Budden to leave Foxtons!
Well Headphones has a nasty habit of making predictions which aren’t born out by time
2017 Emoov
“We’ve been more considered than some in our methodology and therefore we will emerge and remain as one of the few estate agency disruptors that are actually sustainable !
2016
Russell Quirk, , predicts that 20% of the overall market will be split by the top five hybrid operators by 2020.
FOXTONS
Nic Budden has done a reasonable job .Quick defensive action in the spring to the pandemic and raised £22m very quickly in the market .Performed better than expected and is spending £3m of that buying shares back in .H2 looking to be perfectly satisfactory
Certainly a lot better than someone raising £2,6m on Crowdcube in 2018 for it to disappear down a hole in nanoseconds
COUNTRYWIDE
It’s not necessarily all over yet .
,Connells require 75% shareholder support to drive the deal through. They have managed to hook Paterson on board , However Oaktree & Brandes are notable absentees from declaring their support .Connells have declared support of just over 51%
Oaktreee & Brandes certainly have the capability of stirring things up and testing Connells resolve. You would certainly expect that 395p might not be Connells best offer
Brandes who are currently nursing a huge loss on their investment could easily chuck £10m into the ring with Oaktree and increase their stake so as to threaten the 75% acceptances and maybe push Connells to increase their offer
Furthermore between now and the shareholders meeting in Feb, hopefully investors will be made aware of trading performance in H2 now the FY has just ended .
This is likely to be robust and a country mile away from the doom and gloom pedalled by the BODS as they looked to shaft shareholders with the Alchemy deal
Investors likely to make their own mind up rather than accept the recommendations of a set of BODS who have demonstrated with Alchemy that they were prepared to accept the hand of marriage to the 1st frog that offered a kiss
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eMoov founder and CEO, Russell Quirk, commented: “It is an exciting time for online estate agencies with significant investment coming into the sector.
“We will continue to have the best tech platform and the best customer service in our sector and will push online estate agency to over 50% of the market by 2020.”
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I think he works on the principle of having multiple opinions on everything in the hope that he’s bound to get one correct eventually.
Let’s wait for an announcement ?
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I wish PIE would realise that by getting this bloke to commentate it just forces people to stop reading and stop visiting the site.
CW branch network is strong and with strong reputation locally, unlike EMoove who will be consigned to the Dustin of history.
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At least you now realise you’ll get a load of abuse in the comments section….!
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Can’t stand him but he does speak some truths and I do like some of his humour.
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There will be other big names making headlines for wrong reasons in early 2021. Lots of companies took the opportunity to delay posting results/accounts with many doing so in the last couple of days before Xmas hoping to avoid the glare of the limelight. One group having lost £30m in 18/19 has gone on to lose £45m in 19/20 but continues to borrow to build and now has debts which cannot be repaid without selling. RQ’s comment about the high street is right although I would go as far to say that within 10 years there will not be agents on the high street as 2021 – 2027 will see AI and automation make the role of negotiators and administrators redundant – leaving client managers (listers) to become the only real role.
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Happy New Year ALL –
If no one bothered commenting, then ‘this bloke’ wouldn’t get air time. I find RQ articles entertaining and those that bother to give serious answers, even more so 🙂
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Vic Darvey deserves the boot after furloughing a load of his staff, telling them they were securing the future of the company and their jobs were safe, then making most of them redundant while giving himself a massive bonus. Top fella
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An enjoyable read, thanks Russell.
Why do you have a photo of Rishi Sunak on your desk? Satire?
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Those in Glass House should not throw stones.
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Whenever I see his name, as the author of the article, I head straight for the comments.
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Interesting article. I do hope 2021 is good to you Russell and that you finally buy some new shoes.
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I skipped reading the article and went straight to the comments…..much more factual and entertaining!
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